I. South African supply has resumed, and European benchmark prices have been established.
In South Africa, total chromium ore exports in June amounted to 2.404 million tonnes, showing a slight month-on-month decline of 0.9%, but a significant year-on-year increase of 21.4%; among these exports, China accounted for 67.61%. During the same period, South Africa's high-carbon chromite exports totaled 123,300 tonnes, recording a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decline of 13.6%. The sharp surge in ore exports contrasted sharply with the contraction in chromite exports, reflecting the continued weakness in South Africa's domestic smelting sector. The Glencore–Merafe chromium joint venture has reached a three-year electricity price agreement with Eskom (62 c/kWh), while the Boshoek and Wonderkop smelters are set to resume operations. South Africa's chromite production capacity is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year.
Samchrome has confirmed that the European chromite benchmark price for the third quarter of 2026 will be $156 per pound, providing an important international reference point for China's spot market.
The price of high-carbon chromite (HC: 60%, Si: 4%) in India declined by ₹1,400/ton (approximately USD 15/ton) week-on-week to ₹119,600/ton, as high prices made it difficult to close transactions, prompting sellers to reduce prices to secure orders. The first blast furnace of IMFA's KNR-1 new chromite project is expected to start iron production in August.
Glencore's H1 2026 interim report shows that the chromite production at the Lion smelter has already rebounded.
II. In China, prices continue to decline steadily, while cost differentiation is intensifying.
Regarding prices, China's high-carbon chromite market continued its weak trend, with prices falling slightly again, recording a cumulative weekly decline of 50–100 yuan per 50 basis tons. As of August 7, the prevailing quotation in Inner Mongolia had dropped to 7,950 yuan per 50 basis tons, with the main trading range falling between 7,950–8,100 yuan per 50 basis tons. By August, procurement prices from major steel mills had all been finalized: Taiyuan Steel at 7,895 yuan per 50 basis tons, Qingshan at 8,095 yuan per 50 basis tons, and Beigang New Materials at 8,075 yuan per 50 basis tons-all showing a month-on-month decrease of 200 yuan per 50 basis tons. The tender prices from large stainless steel plants fell below the 8,000 yuan mark, setting a relatively weak tone for the market.
Regarding costs, according to data from Mysteel, the average spot production cost for high-carbon chromite in China on August 5 was 8,661 yuan per 50 basis tons. Regional disparities are pronounced: in Inner Mongolia, the SF-EF process recorded the lowest cost at 7,939 yuan, with a spot profit of only 61 yuan; conversely, in Henan, the EF process incurred a cost as high as 9,333 yuan, resulting in a spot loss of 1,233 yuan. The entire industry is now operating near the break-even point, with some high-cost producing regions experiencing substantial losses.
Regarding supply and demand dynamics, demand remains consistent with the off-season pattern, with spot transactions primarily driven by essential procurement needs. For August, stainless steel production output is expected to increase by 44,400 tonnes month-on-month to 3.6388 million tonnes; however, the traditional off-season for traditional consumption has not yet concluded, and downstream buyers exhibit strong price-pressure-seeking tendencies. On the supply side, although some chromite producers have suspended or reduced production due to cost pressures, short-term supply levels remain relatively high.
Regarding production capacity dynamics, this week, Inner Mongolia Xingshun New Materials officially launched the public disclosure of its Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for its 520,000-ton annual capacity high-carbon chromite project, which proposes to construct six fully enclosed DC electric arc furnaces. Although the project is still in its preliminary stages, expectations for future supply increments are already exerting a potential downward pressure on market sentiment.III. Summary
This week, the high-carbon chromite market has exhibited a tripartite competitive dynamic characterized by "strong cost support, weak actual demand, and highly elastic supply." On the cost side, quotes for chromite on overseas markets have risen by $5/ton to $285/ton; however, high port inventories and concentrated arrivals at ports have suppressed spot prices from rising accordingly. On the demand side, the off-season for stainless steel production has not yet concluded, making price concessions by steel mills an inevitability. On the supply side, the commencement of environmental impact assessments for new 520,000-ton capacity projects, combined with expectations of capacity recovery in South Africa, continues to accumulate long-term supply pressure.
In the short term, market prices have already approached the cost line, with limited downside potential but no clear upward drivers; therefore, it is expected that the market will remain in a weak range-bound pattern. The key variables driving this market are whether maintenance activities at chromite producers can be effectively implemented during mid-to-late August, and whether end-market demand for stainless steel can recover amid the transition between peak and off-peak seasons.
