I. Market Overview: Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels, Supply Side Remains Tight
Since the beginning of July, copper prices both domestically and internationally have continued to fluctuate at high levels. As of July 17, the main Shanghai copper futures contract CU2608 closed at 103,550 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from last Friday; LME copper closed at $13,528/ton, up 0.32% month-on-month. Copper prices have fallen first and then risen this year. Due to tight copper concentrate supply and the delayed resumption of production at Grasberg, imported copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline.
Several international institutions have recently released copper price forecasts. BMI raised its average 2026 copper price forecast to $12,700/ton and projected it could reach $17,000 by 2035; Macquarie forecast $13,165 but believes current prices have already outpaced fundamentals; Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast of $12,650; UBS expects prices to reach $13,000 by year-end; and the Chilean Copper Commission projected an average 2026 price of $12,235. Goldman Sachs expects that copper markets outside the United States will remain tight in the short term.
In terms of inventories, as of July 16, domestic electrolytic copper social inventories fell to 123,400 tons, down 16,600 tons from July 13. LME inventories continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventories hit a new record high.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its "2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook," noted that the global copper market supply outlook faces the most severe challenges in recent years. Multiple factors-including disrupted sulfur and sulfuric acid supply due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, China's ban on sulfuric acid exports, and delays in the resumption of production at major copper mines-have significantly increased both short-term and medium-term supply risks. The IEA expects global refined copper demand to increase by more than 25% by 2040 compared to current levels.
II. Industrial Policy: China Tightens Capacity Expansion Controls, Recycled Copper Industry Accelerates Consolidation
On July 3, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) officially released the "15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development," proposing to improve the high-value utilization level of traditional "urban mines" such as scrap non-ferrous metals. Following the policy's implementation, a number of small recycling points in traditional recycled copper hubs such as Yingtan in Jiangxi and Qingyuan in Guangdong have ceased operations one after another, while compliant recycled copper industrial parks have stepped up capacity expansion. Compliant recycled copper rods are RMB 1,200–1,500 cheaper per ton than primary copper rods, and combined with green manufacturing procurement subsidies, overall cost reduction is significant.
At the same time, the NDRC made it clear that it would strengthen supervision over new copper and alumina projects during 2026–2030 to curb irrational investment and disorderly expansion. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association previously stated that about 2 million tons of planned copper smelting capacity in China has been suspended.
Affected by policy and resource constraints, Hunan Yuneng announced on July 16, following board approval, the termination of its 500,000 tons/year copper smelting and supporting project in Fuquan, Guizhou.
III. Corporate Updates: Industry Leaders See Sharp Performance Gains, High-End Copper Materials Appear at Industry Exhibitions
On July 8, Jiangxi Copper disclosed its performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.55–8.5 billion for the first half of 2026, up 80.86%–103.61% year-on-year. On July 17, Jiangxi Copper announced its plan to spin off its subsidiary Jiangxi Copper Foil for listing on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Tongling Nonferrous Metals expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.65–3.15 billion for the first half of 2026, up 84.13%–118.87% year-on-year. Northern Copper expects first-half net profit to increase by 170%–190% year-on-year.
On the exhibition front, the Munich Shanghai Electronica Show was held from July 1 to 3, where Chinalco's Luoyang Copper Processing and Central China Copper showcased high-end copper-based new materials such as copper-nickel-silicon high-strength high-conductivity alloy strips and lead frame copper strips. Jintian Co., Ltd. highlighted its high-precision copper alloy strips, high-conductivity precision copper busbars, and other series of products. From July 8 to 10, the 2026 Shanghai International Copper Industry Exhibition was held, where Jinxi Chunlei exhibited high-end products including high-strength copper-nickel-tin alloys and copper-nickel-silicon materials.
The 4th China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo was held in Beijing in late June, where China Copper exhibited nearly 20 products including high-end lead frame materials and high-strength high-conductivity copper alloys, and Tongling Nonferrous showcased eight high-end copper products.
Regarding Boway Alloy, the company's Vietnam new materials base continues to operate, and it recently stated on an investor interaction platform that it is actively participating in the exploration of new downstream applications for copper-based alloy 3D printing.
IV. Technological Frontiers: Multiple Breakthroughs in R&D of New Copper Alloy Materials
Kunming Copper's tellurium-copper alloy project was successfully put into operation, precisely capturing the urgent market demand for high-performance tellurium-copper alloy materials in new energy vehicles, precision electronics, and other industries. In early July, Jintian Co., Ltd. received a patent authorization for "a corrosion-resistant copper alloy tube and its preparation method." Sanhua Holdings' patent for a copper alloy and its manufacturing method was published on July 10. In addition, the Henan Academy of Sciences' "High-performance Copper Alloy Key Technology New Materials Pilot Platform" was included in the provincial-level public service list.
