If the previous articles helped us understand "what" metal chromium is, "how" it is produced, and "where" it comes from, then today's piece will focus on a more practical question – how much is this market worth right now? How are prices moving? And what does the future hold?
1. Price Fluctuations: From Surge to Rational Correction
2025 was a highly dramatic year for metal chromium prices. Prices were hovering at low levels early in the year, but entered an upward channel starting in February, with leading companies such as Zhenhua Co., Ltd. successively raising prices in February, March, and April, for a cumulative increase of RMB 10,000 per metric ton. As of April 21, the domestic spot average price of metal chromium had reached RMB 69,000/ton, up RMB 7,500 from the beginning of the year.
The real breakout came at the end of October – the second state reserve purchase volume far exceeded expectations, approaching nearly four times the first purchase volume, directly pushing metal chromium prices up by RMB 10,000/ton. As of November 9, the Shanghai metal chromium price stood at RMB 75,500/ton, while the ex-factory price including tax broke through RMB 82,500/ton – a gain of nearly 28% within two weeks. By December, major producers' executed prices had stabilized at around RMB 85,000/ton.
Entering 2026, the market entered a phase of rational adjustment. On June 26, the domestic spot average price for 1# chromium was reported at RMB 76,350/ton, down RMB 1,000/ton from the previous day. Overall industry operating rates remained at 60–70%, with the market in a weak and volatile pattern.
2. Supply-Demand Pattern: Structural Imbalances Under a Tight Balance
Market size: The global metal chromium market was valued at approximately US$881 million in 2025 and is projected to reach US$1.415 billion by 2032, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1%. The broader global chromium market (including chrome ore, ferrochrome, etc.) was valued at about US$27.86 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach US$41.91 billion by 2032.
Supply side: Global annual production of metal chromium stands at about 80,000–100,000 metric tons. China is the world's largest producing region, accounting for a 47% market share, while Europe holds 38%. Global high-carbon ferrochrome production reached nearly 17 million metric tons in 2025. However, South Africa is undergoing a structural shift – due to high electricity costs (with an approved 12.74% tariff increase), ferrochrome production is gradually losing competitiveness, and ferrochrome export volumes plummeted 51% in 2025.
Demand side: Traditional stainless steel demand continues to grow steadily (at 3–5%), but the real growth engine has shifted to high-end sectors such as superalloys, aero-engines, and gas turbines. Global superalloy demand is growing by approximately 20–30%. In emerging fields, a 1 GW-class solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) power plant requires more than 1,000 metric tons of metal chromium; it is forecast that SOFCs will add 3,800, 11,300, and 26,200 metric tons of chromium demand in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.
Overall assessment: The global chromium market is in a state of tight balance. Projected global chromium demand stands at 11.712 million metric tons in 2025, 12.931 million in 2030, and 13.590 million in 2035.
3. Future Outlook: Three Major Trends Reshaping the Landscape
Trend 1: Continued surge in high-end demand. The core pricing logic for metal chromium has shifted from the "stainless steel cycle" to "critical raw material needs for emerging industries." Military, aerospace, and new energy (fuel cells, iron-chromium flow batteries) will jointly drive demand higher.
Trend 2: Intensifying supply-side constraints. South Africa plans to impose a 25% export tariff on unprocessed chrome ore; Europe plans to implement the Critical Raw Materials Act in 2026, requiring strategic reserves to reach 45% of annual consumption; China has already designated chromium as a nationally strategic mineral resource.
Trend 3: Widening supply-demand gap. Industry analysis projects that the supply-demand gap will persist through 2028, with the deficit ratio potentially exceeding 30%. Metal chromium prices in 2026 are expected to remain in the RMB 75,000–80,000/ton range.
4. Summary
The metal chromium market in 2025 can be summed up in one phrase – "epic volatility." From the early-year slump to the late-October surge, and then to the rational correction in mid-2026, the price curve reflects the combined forces of state reserve purchases, surging high-end demand, and tightening supply.
Looking ahead, metal chromium is transforming from a "stainless steel additive" into a "critical material for advanced manufacturing." Whoever controls upstream resources and builds out a full industrial chain will hold the upper hand in this global contest.
(This concludes the metal chromium series for now. From basic properties to production processes, from the full industry chain to the market landscape, we hope these articles have helped you build a systematic understanding of this key metal.)
